Coinbase CEO: crypto market on the verge of a new bull cycle
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong stated that the spot cryptocurrency market is approaching a phase of active growth. He bases his optimistic forecast on an analysis of historical cycles: past bear market consolidation periods lasted on average about 370–380 days, and the current correction is already close to completing this time window.
The statement came after a meeting between crypto industry representatives and political leadership at the White House, where key market players and regulators were invited. Immediately after these events, bitcoin (BTC) showed confident growth, breaking through the psychologically important level of $78,000.
Trading activity: decline and first signs of a reversal
My analysis of market data confirms that the previous months were challenging. In July, spot trading volume on the 14 largest exchanges fell by 21.7% — to $429.0 billion from $547.9 billion a month earlier. The decline affected all platforms without exception. Binance retained its leadership with $196.5 billion (45.8% of the market), while Coinbase lost 26.4%, and Bitfinex became the laggard with a collapse of 59.7%.
The derivatives market also contracted by 11.1%, to $3.03 trillion. Notably, the ratio of futures to spot trades rose from 6.21x to 7.06x — this signals that traders are increasingly resorting to leverage, which often precedes a trend change. Sentiment in August remained depressed: the fear and greed index dropped to 29 points on the 13th, indicating the dominance of fear.
Macroeconomic catalyst
The turning point came on August 19. The U.S. Treasury Department announced a doubling of long-term bond buyback volumes — to $4 billion or more per operation, increasing the number of such operations from two to four per quarter. The new schedule will take effect on September 9. Treasury yields fell sharply: ten-year bonds lost 5.7 basis points, dropping to 4.647%, while thirty-year bonds lost 9 points, to 5.196%.
In parallel, information emerged that authorities are discussing the possibility of large-scale bitcoin purchases for reserves. Since then, the price of the first cryptocurrency has gained about 22%, and on Saturday it held around $78,700. The fear and greed index at the time of analysis surged to 71 points, indicating a shift in sentiment to "greed."
Bullish forecast: timing and calendar
Armstrong emphasizes that his position is based on market cyclicality. According to him, spot trading in crypto assets has been in a bear phase for about a year, and historically such periods lasted approximately 370–380 days. "We are almost at the point where people start saying: this cycle is probably ending. So, it's time for the next bull market in crypto," he noted.
He highlights two key factors that will support the reversal. The first is the Senate vote on the CLARITY bill, scheduled for September 15. The second is the period from October to December, which he calls traditionally strong for bitcoin, especially in the context of halving cycles (reductions in miner rewards). "I think there is a high probability that we are on the threshold of a new bull market for spot cryptocurrency trading," he concluded.
My expertise: Armstrong's argumentation looks convincing, especially in light of the synchronized effect of macroeconomic stimuli and internal crypto cycles. However, it is worth remembering that historical parallels do not guarantee an exact repetition of the scenario, and volatility in the coming weeks could be high. Nevertheless, the fundamental prerequisites for a trend change are indeed stronger now than at the beginning of the year.