Crypto news

The recent searches and detentions at major Moscow trading venues, including "Novaya Gorbushka" and "Moscow-City," have dealt a significant blow to illegal crypto exchangers. However, as my market analysis shows, these measures are merely a targeted solution that cannot eradicate the system itself. By breaking individual links in criminal chains, law enforcement does not eliminate the root cause of such a market's existence in Russia.

What the real power of the raids is

First, it is a strike at the key logistics link for fraudsters. Phone scammers do not work with bank accounts directly—the risk of blocks under Federal Law No. 115 and oversight by FinCERT is too high. Instead, they use illegal exchangers that accept cash from couriers, convert it into cryptocurrency, and transfer it to foreign wallets. Detaining staff, seizing equipment, and freezing channels temporarily paralyze this process, giving victims a chance to recover part of their funds.

Second, it demonstrates the inevitability of punishment. Opening criminal cases under Part 4 of Article 159 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation (up to 10 years of imprisonment) is a powerful deterrent for ordinary participants: cashiers, operators, and couriers. Real arrests, unlike virtual warnings, force many to abandon such earnings.

Third, it reduces infrastructure. Each closed exchanger shrinks the market, forcing fraudsters to seek new intermediaries, which increases their costs and risks. If the raids become systematic rather than one-off, this could lead to a shortage of services and a decline in the profitability of the schemes.

Why the problem is not fully resolved

The main reason for the resilience of shadow exchangers is the lack of sufficient legal infrastructure in Russia for converting cryptocurrency. Until clear regulation and a sufficient number of official platforms emerge, the demand for illegal services will not disappear but will merely transform. Fraudsters will quickly rebuild the network, but in a more covert form.

Modern schemes do not require physical presence. A significant portion of operations has already moved to P2P platforms, online exchangers, droppers, and crypto ATMs. Raids on specific addresses do not affect this infrastructure. Moreover, after high-profile searches, organizers retreat into an even less controlled environment, and mostly ordinary executors who often do not know each other are detained. Criminal cases against them do not stop the business but merely create the appearance of active enforcement.

Corruption risks deserve separate mention. Physical exchangers cannot exist without "protection"—landlords, security, corrupt officials, or law enforcement. As long as these connections are not exposed, the closure of some points will be offset by the opening of others under the patronage of new protectors.

Risks for bona fide participants

Bona fide market participants are currently in a zone of legal uncertainty. Even with complete innocence, they may become targets of operational measures, blocks, and criminal prosecution due to unclear criteria and the absence of protective mechanisms. Raids in shopping centers also damage landlords and neighboring stores, scaring away customers and causing long-term reputational harm.

Given the geopolitical situation, the raids are an understandable measure, effective as a tool for disrupting specific operations, demonstrating state will, and gathering intelligence on criminal networks. However, strategically, the problem will not be resolved without creating legal exchange infrastructure, controlling online channels, and internationally prosecuting organizers. Otherwise, the fraudulent conveyor belt will recover faster than law enforcement can conduct new searches.

My conclusion: Until Russia creates a full-fledged legal alternative for cryptocurrency exchange, any forceful measures will only temporarily patch holes in the sinking ship of the shadow economy. The market adapts faster than the regulator can respond.